Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 13.575767 15.521632 17.615780 20.033166 22.742693 25.681869 29.107312
2025-05-25 10.696637 13.334798 16.392544 20.182579 24.736999 30.015690 36.577794
2025-06-01 9.151232 12.063467 15.603007 20.191912 25.950793 32.902806 41.890516
2025-06-08 7.868380 10.913621 14.777338 19.992401 26.793828 35.303353 46.686755
2025-06-15 7.030230 10.189357 14.348363 20.157951 27.984983 38.075433 51.962327
2025-06-22 6.489372 9.785281 14.270328 20.729419 29.684589 41.536371 58.255424
2025-06-29 5.784096 9.064895 13.674977 20.512086 30.254851 43.474519 62.563817
2025-07-06 4.965035 8.089343 12.622929 19.545966 29.682018 43.776122 64.597458
2025-07-13 4.657352 7.842634 12.592112 20.025207 31.157088 46.953834 70.734489
2025-07-20 4.357868 7.575477 12.500034 20.389967 32.462510 49.926227 76.686409
2025-07-27 3.992180 7.165387 12.150651 20.326594 33.105810 51.945098 81.319839
2025-08-03 3.632765 6.729831 11.722385 20.099726 33.467969 53.540683 85.368933
2025-08-10 3.352712 6.408863 11.462307 20.134427 34.256124 55.842004 90.631169
2025-08-17 3.135128 6.176066 11.328064 20.360211 35.352716 58.658289 96.797166
2025-08-24 2.897240 5.882338 11.064019 20.343119 36.040206 60.848456 102.059507
2025-08-31 2.654162 5.555003 10.714462 20.151450 36.418705 62.552245 106.610363
2025-09-07 2.490183 5.360114 10.580186 20.314944 37.385640 65.220404 112.777525
2025-09-14 2.400077 5.299241 10.680226 20.891538 39.074929 69.119672 121.066199
2025-09-21 2.207373 5.016265 10.350119 20.672286 39.371660 70.729187 125.666516
2025-09-28 1.936963 4.547899 9.635292 19.699545 38.285268 69.969461 126.298823
2025-10-05 1.866686 4.490831 9.702683 20.182095 39.809812 73.676362 134.533854
2025-10-12 1.787517 4.407077 9.710703 20.549422 41.137938 77.090542 142.385934
2025-10-19 1.667426 4.221992 9.502732 20.485601 41.665970 79.129926 147.946043